Louisiana Lafayette

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	63.0
Current RPI:	63
Expected SOS:	210
Current SOS:	210
Current Record:	25-6
Expected Record:	25-6
Current Conf Record:	17-3
Expected Conf Record:	17-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	53
Expected OOC SOS:	153

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-6	63.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	94-76	L	0%
11-17	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	H	115-82	W	100%
11-20	Iowa (157.0)	B10	N	71-80	W	100%
11-21	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	N	70-61	L	0%
11-22	Richmond (176.0)	A10	N	76-82	W	100%
11-28	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	89-78	W	100%
12-1	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	80-105	W	100%
12-12	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	71-75	W	100%
12-16	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	87-65	W	100%
12-19	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	82-74	W	100%
12-22	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	A	89-60	L	0%
12-29	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	63-77	W	100%
12-31	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	78-88	W	100%
1-4	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	78-45	W	100%
1-6	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	81-64	W	100%
1-13	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	82-48	W	100%
1-18	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	65-77	W	100%
1-20	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	55-80	W	100%
1-25	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	76-57	W	100%
1-27	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	81-69	W	100%
2-3	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	59-80	W	100%
2-8	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	106-92	L	0%
2-10	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	91-102	W	100%
2-15	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	73-63	W	100%
2-17	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	100-79	W	100%
2-22	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	76-81	W	100%
2-24	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	71-88	W	100%
3-1	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	85-74	W	100%
3-3	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	61-72	L	0%
3-9	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	N	80-54	W	100%
3-10	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	N	68-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	26.40	26.40	82.31	82.31	17.06	17.06
UT Arlington	SB	5.58	5.58	63.33	63.33	1.49	1.49
Texas St.	SB	5.55	5.55	46.43	46.43	-0.40	-0.40
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.17	4.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	4.00	4.00	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
South Alabama	SB	3.99	3.99	42.86	42.86	-0.57	-0.57
Arkansas St.	SB	3.97	3.97	32.14	32.14	-1.42	-1.42
Little Rock	SB	3.94	3.94	17.86	17.86	-2.53	-2.53
Georgia St.	SB	2.68	2.68	67.74	67.74	0.95	0.95
Appalachian St.	SB	2.63	2.63	43.33	43.33	-0.35	-0.35
Georgia Southern	SB	2.61	2.61	63.33	63.33	0.70	0.70
Coastal Carolina	SB	2.58	2.58	39.29	39.29	-0.55	-0.55
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.85	1.85	65.52	65.52	0.57	0.57
New Orleans	Slnd	1.84	1.84	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.79	1.79	62.96	62.96	0.46	0.46
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.78	1.78	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Mississippi	SEC	1.64	1.64	35.48	35.48	-0.48	-0.48
Clemson	ACC	1.61	1.61	70.97	70.97	0.68	0.68
Iowa	B10	1.61	1.61	43.75	43.75	-0.20	-0.20
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	1.61	1.61	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
Wyoming	MWC	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.29	0.29	8.00	8.00	-0.24	-0.24
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.28	0.28	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.28	0.28	30.77	30.77	-0.11	-0.11
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.28	0.28	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.26	0.26	80.00	80.00	0.15	0.15
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.26	0.26	10.71	10.71	-0.20	-0.20
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.25	0.25	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.23	0.23	17.24	17.24	-0.15	-0.15
Lamar	Slnd	0.20	0.20	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.15	0.15	12.50	12.50	-0.11	-0.11
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
George Mason	A10	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00